The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Wednesday again
revised down its forecast for global oil demand in 2011 and
2012 amid lower projections for global gross
domestic product (GDP) growth.
A summary of their monthly oil market report is as
Oil futures tracked
latest economic developments amid the worsening European debt crisis, which
triggered downward price moves throughout September, the IEA
Prices partially recovered on renewed optimism that European leaders would address
euro-zone financing issues, with WTI last trading at $84.50/bbl
and Brent near $108/bbl.
Global oil demand was revised down by 50,000 bpd for 2011
and by 210,000 bpd for 2012 with lower-than-expected
third-quarter readings in the non-OECD and a downward
adjustment to global GDP growth assumptions, according to the
Global GDP growth is now seen at 3.8% in 2011 and 3.9% in
2012 with significant downside risks. Demand estimates stand at
89.2 miiion bpd in 2011 (+1.0 million bpd year on year) and
90.5m bpd in 2012 (+1.3 million bpd year on year).
Global oil supply fell by 300,000 bpd to 88.7 million bpd in
September from August, due to non-OPEC outages. Non-OPEC supply
projections are trimmed by 300,000
bpd for the 2011 fourth quarter and by 200,000 bpd for 2012,
with annual growth averaging 200,000 bpd, to 52.8 million bpd,
and by 900,000 bpd to 53.6 million bpd for 2011 and 2012
OPEC natural gas liquids (NGL) output averages 5.9 million
bpd in 2011 and 6.3 million bpd in 2012.
OPEC crude oil supply nudged down to 30.15 million bpd in
September, with lower Saudi Arabian and Nigerian output partly
offset by resumed Libyan supply.
Output there reached 350,000 bpd in early October and
capacity is assumed at 600,000 bpd by end-year. The
fourth-quarter call on OPEC crude and stock change
is adjusted up by 300,000 bpd to 30.8 million bpd on lower
non-OPEC supply, with the 2012 call unchanged at
30.5 million bpd.
OECD industry oil stocks fell counter-seasonally in August
by 3.4 million bbl. Preliminary September data suggest a
further 12.7 million bbl decline in OECD industry stocks and a
drop in short-term floating storage. OECD stocks since July
fell below the five year average for the first time since June
Global crude runs estimates for the third and fourth
quarters of 2011 are revised down by 50,000 bpd and 75,000 bpd,
respectively, versus last month.
Lower-than-expected Asian throughputs are partly offset by
continued robust US runs. Global throughputs now average 75.5
million bpd in the third quarter and 75.3 million bpd in the
Meanwhile, OECD refinery rationalization continues,
according to the IEA.