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IEA lowers China’s oil demand forecast

11.11.2011  | 

The International Energy Agency has slightly lowered its 2012 forecast for Chinese oil demand due to an anticipated slowdown in that country's economy, but revised up its forecast for India's oil demand next year by the same amount. China's gross domestic product in the third quarter rose 9.1% from a year earlier but was down from a 9.5% growth in the second quarter and 9.7% in the first.

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By WAYNE MA

The International Energy Agency has slightly lowered its 2012 forecast for Chinese oil demand due to an anticipated slowdown in that country's economy, but revised up its forecast for India's oil demand next year by the same amount.

"[China's] monthly demand pattern fits with our view of moderating growth rates over the next 18 months as the economy slows and particularly heading into the fourth quarter," the IEA said in its monthly oil-markets report.

China's gross domestic product in the third quarter rose 9.1% from a year earlier but was down from a 9.5% growth in the second quarter and 9.7% in the first. India's economy grew 7.7% in the April-June period, the slowest pace in six quarters.

"The Indian economy continues to show signs of slowing, with both industrial output and auto sales moderating. Nevertheless, with a now higher 2011 baseline, our forecast is revised up by 20,000 barrels a day for 2012," it said.

Japan's demand for residual fuel oil and crude for direct burning may rise due to a nuclear power shortfall after the Fukushima Daiichi disaster in March.

The IEA said its outlook for these two fuel categories would by raised by a modest 10,000 barrels a day next year.

"Oil-burning needs in 2012 are forecast to add 290,000 barrels a day to "normal" levels [around 200,000 barrels a day]," the agency said. "In the less likely event that no nuclear power returns in 2012, incremental oil burn needs versus normal would stand at 460,000 barrels a day next year."


Dow Jones Newswires



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