Global energy demand will continue to grow over the next 20
years, albeit at a slowing annual rate. This will
be fueled by economic and population growth in non-OECD
countries, BP said in an annual report titled Energy
Increased energy efficiency and strong growth for renewable
energy are also forecast in BPs report, which was
published on Wednesday.
Global energy demand is likely to grow 39% by 2030, or 1.6%
annually, almost entirely in non-OECD countries. The demand projection is up 1.2% from the
Consumption in OECD countries is expected to rise by just 4%
in total over the period.
Fossil fuels to dominate
Global energy will remain dominated by fossil fuels, which
are forecast to account for 81% of global energy demand by
2030, BP forecasts, down about 6% from current levels.
The period should also see increased fuel-switching, with
more gas and renewables use at the expense of coal and oil, the
That gradual switching should see renewables, including biofuels, continue to be the fastest
growing sources of energy globally, rising at an annual clip of
more than 8%, much quicker even than natural gas, the fastest
growing fossil fuel at about 2%/year over the period to
This report is by turns challenging, fascinating and
stimulating for anyone in the energy business, said BP
CEO Bob Dudley. It helps us to be both realistic and
optimistic. It shows there are things we cant change -
like the underlying drivers of energy demand - and things we
can change like the way we satisfy that demand.
The main message is that we need to have an open,
competitive energy sector, which encourages innovation and
thereby maximises efficiency in order to enjoy energy that is
sufficient, secure and sustainable into the future, he
BP chief economist Christof Rühl says the impact of
globalization and competition will continue to deliver a
remarkable convergence in energy intensity around the world, a
measure of energy use per unit of national economic
Western Hemisphere becomes self-sufficient
The growth of unconventional supply, including US shale oil
and gas, Canadian oil sands, and Brazilian deepwaters, against
a background of a gradual decline in oil demand, will see the
Western Hemisphere become almost totally energy self-sufficient
This means that growth in the rest of the world, principally
Asia, will depend increasingly on the Middle East in particular
for its growing oil requirements.
Oil loses market share
Oil, the worlds leading fuel at present, will continue
to lose market share throughout the period, although demand for
hydrocarbon liquids will still reach 103
million bpd in 2030, up by 18% from 2010.
This means the world will still need to bring on enough
liquids - oil, biofuels and others - to meet that
forecast 16 million bpd of extra demand by 2030 and replace
declining output from existing sources.
While coal is expected to continue gaining market share in
the current decade, growth will wane in the 2020-30 decade; gas
growth will remain steady and non-fossil fuels are likely to
contribute nearly half of the growth after 2020.
Power generation use to surge
Power generation is expected to be the fastest growing user
of energy in the period to 2030, accounting for more than half
the total growth in primary energy use.
And it is in the power sector where the greatest changes in
the fuel mix are expected. Renewables, nuclear and
hydro-electric should account for more than half the growth in
power generation, BP says.
The outlook examines in more detail several important facets
of the global energy story: the pathways for economic
development and energy demand in China and India; the factors impacting the
energy export prospects of the Middle East; and the
drivers of energy consumption in road
In China, growth of energy use is expected to slow
significantly after 2020 as the economy matures. Although Indias population is on track
to exceed Chinas, its energy growth path is unlikely to
replicate Chinas energy intensive growth path.
It will more than double its energy use to 2030, heavily
based on coal, but this will still result in consumption of
some 1.3 billion tonnes of oil equivalent (toe), or just over
one quarter of Chinas total.
There will remain a heavy reliance on higher oil exports
from Middle East OPEC countries to meet demand.
BPs analysis suggests that the Middle East countries
have the capability to bring on the required new production to
meet global demand, even though the regions energy use
per capita is expected to remain more than three times as high
as the rest of the non-OECD world.
BP says it expects to see steady progress in longstanding
efforts to displace oil with gas and to improve the efficiency
of energy use within the region.
Saudi Arabian, Iraqi, and regional production of gas-related
liquids will dominate supply growth as the regions share
of global oil supply rises to 34% by 2030.
Transportation demand to lag
Transportation is likely to be the slowest growing sector
for global energy consumption, as significant improvements in
fuel efficiency, including hybridization of vehicles, will
partly offset continued strong growth in vehicle sales in
Hybrid vehicles (including plug-ins) offer consumer
flexibility and appear capable of meeting anticipated fuel
economy targets in 2030; oil is likely to account for 87% of
transport sector energy use, down from 95% today, with biofuels
filling most of the gap, and accounting for 7% of transport
sector energy use.
CO2 emissions to rise
Global CO2 emissions are likely to rise by
about 28% by 2030 - slower than the current rate of energy
demand growth due to the rapid growth of renewables and natural
If more aggressive policies than currently envisioned are
introduced, global CO2 emissions could begin to decline by
2030, the report says.
Import needs vary by region
By 2030 todays energy importers will need to import
40% more than they do today, but the experience will vary by
In North America, efforts to reduce dependence on foreign
supplies should show impressive results in the next couple of
decades. Bolstered by supply growth from biofuels as well as unconventional
oil and gas, North Americas energy deficit will turn into
a small surplus by 2030.
In contrast, Europes energy deficit remains
at current levels for oil and coal but will increase by some
two thirds for natural gas, supplied by LNG and pipelines from
the Former Soviet Union.
Chinas energy deficit across all fuels will widen by
more than a factor of five and Indias, mainly of oil and
coal, will more than double in the period to 2030.
BPs work on the Energy Outlook 2030 report
supplements BPs Statistical Review of World
Energy, which will next be published in June 2012.
To read BP's full outlook, including tables, click here.