By JENNY GROSS
LONDON -- Even accounting for faltering oil demand from
China, global refinery runs in the period from
July to September will be even greater this year than last, the
International Energy Agency said in its monthly oil market
Despite the weak runs in China over the last few
months and our lower outlook, we're still touching year ago
levels if not higher, said Toril Bosoni, a senior oil
market analyst at the International Energy Agency.
Runs are relatively healthy in several other parts of
the world and we expect year-on-year growth to come back in the
third quarter with healthier runs.
IEA forecast shows that despite concerns about growth in
emerging economies, such as China, demand from there is still
growing and refining margins still have room to
Chinas crude intake is likely to increase in the
coming months, just at a slower pace than previously expected
because of high inventories there and faltering domestic
demand, Ms. Bosoni said.
Refinery runs overall have been
relatively robust so far this year, expected at 75.5 million
bpd in the third quarter and are likely to continue to rise in
August, according to the report.
The annual growth in global refinery runs continues to stem
from developing countries, with two-thirds of growth in the
second quarter from non-Organization for Economic Co-operation
and Development countries. Russia and India, in particular, reported high
crude intake, the IEA said.
In the US, refinery runs have been particularly strong in
the run-up to the driving season this year, Ms. Bosoni
Product exports have been key to supporting runs. In January
to May his year, US exports have surged almost 400,000 bpd
year-on-year, mostly targeting Latin America and Europe.
West Coast crude runs, however, are expected to decline from
current levels in August after a fire at Chevrons 245,000
bpd refinery, which could force the plant to shut for several
In Europe, regional runs should rise
seasonally in August, though in the UK, they will drop.
The shutdown of the Petroplus Coryton refinery, which had a capacity of
220,000 bpd, will lower available capacity in the coming
months, the IEA said.
Dow Jones Newswires