By JUDY McKINNON
Canadian crude oil production will more than double by 2030, and while oil sands will continue to account for most of the growth, a resurgence of conventional crude oil production is expected, the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers said Wednesday.
In its annual long-term forecast for Canadian crude production, the industry trade group said crude oil production will reach 6.7 million bpd by 2030, up from 3.2 million bpd in 2012.
CAPP said its forecast includes oil-sands production of 5.2 million bpd by 2030, up from 1.8 million last year.
The group said the overall trend is similar to its forecast last year, but noted that conventional production forecasts are up 300,000 bpd and oil-sands production is up by 200,000 bpd by 2030.
CAPP said advancements in drilling technologies have helped reverse the decline in conventional production over the last many decades.
"Stronger performance for conventional tight oil in Canada and the United States, coupled with oil sands growth from Canada, enables greater North American energy security," Greg Stringham, CAPP vice-president, markets and oil sands, said in a statement.
Still, the group acknowledged that its outlook assumes transportation capacity expands to accommodate the projected increases in supply. Canadian crude sells at a discount to other oils, given the relative difficulties of getting it out of the country.
There are a number of proposed pipeline projects in the works and seeking approvals to move landlocked western-Canadian supply to markets. Producers are also increasingly looking to rail transportation.
Dow Jones Newswires