The fourth annual edition of the BP Energy Outlook 2035
oil companys view of the most likely developments in
global energy markets further 2035, based on up-to-date
The outlook reveals that global energy consumption is
expected to rise by 41% from 2012 to 2035―compared to
55% over the past 23 years (52% over the past 20 years) and
30% over the past 10 years.
Also, 95% of that demand growth is expected to come from the
emerging economies. Energy use in the advanced economies of
North America, Europe and Asia as a group is expected to grow
very slowly and to decline in the later years of the forecast
Shares of the major fossil fuels are converging with oil,
natural gas and coal; each is expected to make up around 27%
of the total energy mix by 2035. The remaining shares will
come from nuclear, hydroelectricity and renewables. Among the
fossil fuels, natural gas
is growing fastest
hydrocarbon; it is increasingly being used as a cleaner
alternative to coal for power generation as well as in other
Bob Dudley, BP CEO, said the outlook
highlights the power of competition and market forces
in unlocking technology
and innovation to meet
the worlds energy needs. These factors make us
optimistic for the worlds energy future.
Dudley added, The outlook leads us to three big
questions: Is there enough energy to meet growing demand? Can
we meet demand reliably? And what are the consequences of
meeting demand? In other words, is the supply sufficient,
secure and sustainable?
On the first question, our answer is a resounding
yes. The growth rate for global demand is slower
than what we have seen in previous decades, largely as a
result of increasing energy efficiency. Trends in global technology
, investment and policy
leave us confident that production will be able to keep pace.
New energy forms such as shale gas, tight oil and renewables
will account for a significant share of the growth in global
On the question of security, the outlook offers a mixed,
though broadly positive, view. Among todays energy
importers, the US is on a path to achieve energy
self-sufficiency, while import dependence in Europe, China
will increase. Asia is
expected to become the dominant energy importing
Dudley noted, This need not be a cause for concern if
the market is allowed to do its work, with new supply chains
opening up to these big consuming regions.
On the question of sustainability
, global carbon
dioxide (CO2)emissions are project
ed to rise by 29%, with all
of the growth coming from the emerging economies. The outlook
notes some positive signs:
- CO2 emissions are expected to increase slowly as natural gas and renewables gain
market share from coal and oil
- CO2 emissions are expected to decline in Europe and the
US. By the end of the forecast period, BP expects many
advanced countries will experience economic growth while
decreasing their energy use.
This process shows the power of economic forces and
competition," said BP chief economist Christof Rühl.
"Put simply, people are finding ways to use energy more
efficiently because it saves them money. This is also good
for the environment― the less energy we use the less
carbon we emit. For example, CO2 emissions in the US are back
at 1990s levels."
The 2014 outlook also examines transportation more closely
and takes an in-depth look at the North American natural gas
The outlook shows global energy demand continuing to increase
at an average of 1.5%/yr to 2035. Growth is expected to
moderate, climbing at an average of 2%/yr to 2020 and then by
only 1.2%/yr to 2035.
About 95% of this growth is expected to come from
non-Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development
(non-OECD) economies, with China and India will account for
more than half of the increase. By 2035, energy use in the
non-OECD nations is expected to be 69% higher than in
In contrast, energy demand by OECD nations will have grown by
only 5%, and it will actually decline after 2030, even with
continued economic growth.
While the fuel mix is evolving, fossil fuel consumption will
continue to be the primary sources. Oil, natural gas, and
coal are expected to converge on market shares of around
26%-27% each by 2035, and non-fossil fuels (nuclear, hydro
and renewables) on a share of around 5%-7% each.
Oil is expected to have slowest growth trend of the major
fuels to 2035, with demand growing at an average of just
0.8%/yr. Nonetheless, the demand for oil and other liquid
fuels will be 19 million bpd higher in 2035 than 2012. All of
the net oil demand growth is expected to come from outside
the OECD nations. Oil demand growth from China, India
and the Middle East will
account for almost all of net demand growth.
Growth in the supply of oil and other liquids (including
biofuels) to 2035 is expected to come primarily from the
Americas and Middle East.
More than half of the growth will come from non-OPEC sources,
with rising production from US tight oil, Canadian oil sands,
Brazilian deepwater, and biofuels more than offsetting mature
declines elsewhere. Increasing production from new tight oil
resources is expected to result in the US overtaking Saudi
Arabia to become the worlds largest producer of liquids
in 2014. US oil imports are expected to fall nearly 75%
between 2012 and 2035.
OPECs share of the oil market is expected to fall early
in the period, reflecting growing non-OPEC production
together with slowing demand growth due to high prices and
increasingly more-efficient transport technologies. OPEC
market share is expected to rebound after 2020.
is expected to be the
fastest growing of the fossil fuels, with demand rising at an
average of 1.9%/yr. Non-OECD countries are expected to
generate 78% of demand growth. Industry and power generation
account for the largest increments of new demand. LNG
exports are expected to grow
more than twice as fast as gas consumption, at an average of
3.9%/yr, and accounting for 26% of the growth in global gas
supply to 2035.
Shale gas supplies are expected to meet 46% of the growth in
gas demand and account for 21% of world gas and 68% of US gas
by 2035. North American shale gas
growth is expected to slow after 2020 and
production from other regions to increase, but in 2035, North
America is still expected to account for 71% of world shale
After oil, coal is expected to be the slowest growing major
fuel, with demand rising on average 1.1%/yr to 2035. Over the
forecast period, growth flattens to just 0.6%/yr after 2020.
Nearly all (87%) of the net growth in demand to 2035 is
expected to come from just China and India, whose combined
share of global coal consumption will rise from 58% in 2012
to 64% in 2035.
Nuclear energy output is expected to rise to 2035 at around
1.9%/yr. China, India and Russia will together account for
96% of the global growth in nuclear power. In contrast,
nuclear output in the US and EU declines due to expected
Hydroelectric power will experience moderate demand growth of
1.8%/yr to 2035, with nearly half of the growth coming from
Renewables are expected to continue to be the fastest growing
energy class. The gain in market share is from a small base
as this energy group will rise at an average of 6.4%/yr to
2035. Renewables share of global electricity production
is expected to grow from 5% to 14% by 2035.
While the OECD economies have led in renewables growth,
renewables in the non-OECD are catching up and are expected
to account for 45% of the total by 2035. Including biofuels,
renewables are expected to have a higher share of primary
energy than nuclear by 2025.