September 2005

Trends and Resources

HP Impact: HPImpact: Analyst questions 'unrealistic' oil and gas demand forecasts

Suggestions that oil consumption will grow up to 120 million bbl per day by 2020 and that automobile and airline traffic will increase at extraordinary rates are futile and damaging to policy makers. ..

Weirauch, Wendy, Hydrocarbon Processing Staff

Suggestions that oil consumption will grow up to 120 million bbl per day by 2020 and that automobile and airline traffic will increase at extraordinary rates are futile and damaging to policy makers. So says a new analysis of future oil trade balances from Energyfiles and Douglas-Westwood. "Such forecasts, divorced from reality, fail to take account of tight supply conditions and rising prices. We will be unable to produce oil at these rates without unbelievable step changes in technology. After 2010, and for periods before this, oil supply limitations and prices will seriously subdue energy demand unless suitable liquid alternatives are developed," according to Dr. Michael R. Smith, d

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