February 2008


Why many experts are wrong in forecasting capital investments and other emerging events

The challenge for HPI managements competing for superior foresight is to create hindsight in advance

Chevriere, J. P., Munisteri, J. G., Transmar Consult Inc.

Samuel Goldwyn, the Hollywood tycoon and founder of the MGM film studio, once acidly remarked that "a smart businessman should never make predictions, especially about the future." This piece of wisdom, unfortunately, is more honored today in the breach than in practice within the oil and gas industry. Time after time, wrong-headed forecasts are developed and distributed by leading public and private institutions such as the International Energy Agency, the US Department of Energy (DOE), Cedigaz, and leading research and investment banks. Subsequently, year after year, managements pay up and use these forecasts within their companies, never dissuaded by their inability to ever hit the mark

Log in to view this article.

Not Yet A Subscriber? Here are Your Options.

1) Start a FREE TRIAL SUBSCRIPTION and gain access to all articles in the current issue of Hydrocarbon Processing magazine.

2) SUBSCRIBE to Hydrocarbon Processing magazine in print or digital format and gain ACCESS to the current issue as well as to 3 articles from the HP archives per month. $399 for an annual subscription*.

3) Start a FULL ACCESS PLAN SUBSCRIPTION and regain ACCESS to this article, the current issue, all past issues in the HP Archive, the HP Process Handbooks, HP Market Data, and more. $1,995 for an annual subscription.  For information about group rates or multi-year terms, contact J'Nette Davis-Nichols at Jnette.Davis-Nichols@GulfEnergyInfo.com or +1 713.520.4426*.

*Access will be granted the next business day.

Related Articles

From the Archive



{{ error }}
{{ comment.comment.Name }} • {{ comment.timeAgo }}
{{ comment.comment.Text }}