July 2019

Sustainability

Electric vehicles are coming, but their impact will be evolutionary, not revolutionary

Alternatively fueled vehicles (AFVs) are getting plenty of press these days, but their market penetration is still a long way from critical mass.

George, S., Routt, M., KBC Advanced Technologies, Inc.

Alternatively fueled vehicles (AFVs) are getting plenty of press these days, but their market penetration is still a long way from critical mass. Their impact on transport fuel markets is likely to be small over the next decade. FIG. 1. 2017 primary energy consumption by fuel, MMtoe, (top) vs. 2017 increase in energy consumption by fuel type, MMtoe (bottom). Source: BP 2018 Statistical Review of World Energy. The replacement of the internal combustion engine (ICE) with AFVs makes for compelling political sound bites, but reality is quite different. The end of ICE technology is overstated; even after 30 yr, AFVs are likely to represent only 20%

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