March 2002

Engineering and Construction

Quantitative risk management aids refinery construction

Combining the Analytic Hierarchy Process and decision tree analysis provides an effective means for controlling a complex project

Dey, P. K., University of The West Indies, Cave Hill Campus

Conventional project management techniques are not always sufficient to ensure that schedule, cost and quality goals are met on large-scale construction projects. These jobs require complex planning, designing and implementation processes. The main reasons for a project's nonachievement in India's hydrocarbon processing industry are changes in scope and design, altered government policies and regulations, unforeseen inflation, under and/or improper estimation. Projects that are exposed to such an uncertain environment can be effectively managed by applying risk management throughout the project life cycle. Risk is by nature subjective. However, managing risk subjectively poss

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