February 2018

Trends and Resources

Industry Perspectives: HPI project announcements analysis shows decline over past 3 yr

According to Hydrocarbon Processing’s Construction Boxscore Database, more than 870 new projects have been announced since 2015.

Nichols, Lee, Hydrocarbon Processing Staff

According to Hydrocarbon Processing’s Construction Boxscore Database, more than 870 new projects have been announced since 2015. However, the total amount of new project announcements has decreased each year. New project announcements have decreased from 302 in 2015 to 256 in 2016, and to 220 in 2017. This trend represents year-over-year (y-o-y) decreases of 15% and 14%, respectively.

FIG. 1. Trend analysis on new project announcements by sector, 2015–2017. Source: <i>Hydrocarbon Processing’s</i> Construction Boxscore Database.
FIG. 1. Trend analysis on new project announcements by sector, 2015–2017. Source: Hydrocarbon Processing’s Construction Boxscore Database.

FIG. 1 shows a trends analysis on new project announcements by sector from 2015–2017. Over the past several years, the refining industry has witnessed a decline in new projects. New refining project announcements decreased from 115 in 2015 to 84 in 2016, and to 69 in 2017. The vast majority of new refining projects continues to be in non-OECD countries, primarily in the Asia-Pacific and Middle East regions.

Conversely, new gas processing/LNG project announcements have increased over the past year. New gas processing/LNG project announcements declined from 127 in 2015 to 68 in 2016, representing a y-o-y decrease of 46%. However, nearly 75 new gas processing/LNG project announcements were announced in 2017, representing a y-o-y increase of approximately 7%. The majority of these projects are located in the Asia-Pacific region and the US. Combined, the Asia-Pacific region and the US represent more than 62% of the total number of new gas processing/LNG project announcements over the past 3 yr.

From 2015–2017, more than 330 new petrochemical projects were announced. Although new petrochemical project numbers have declined over the past 3 yr, the petrochemical sector’s market share percentage has increased y-o-y. From 2015–2017, new petrochemical project announcements have represented 35%, 38% and 47%, respectively, of total project announcements. In total, petrochemical producers have announced more than $100 B in new petrochemical capacity investments over the past 3 yr. The majority of these projects are located in Asia, the Middle East and the US. HP

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