May 2018

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Refining: Winning strategies for oil producers

The prospect of peak oil demand will put pressure on resource-rich national oil companies (NOCs).

Gelder, A., Wood Mackenzie

The prospect of peak oil demand will put pressure on resource-rich national oil companies (NOCs). In a recent base case, Wood Mackenzie forecast that oil demand growth will continue until at least 2035 (FIG. 1). However, in a scenario of early and rapid disruption, global oil demand could peak by 2025. For resource-rich NOCs, the threat of peak oil demand introduces the risk of resources becoming stranded. It is estimated that NOCs control 63% (FIG. 2) of the world’s remaining commercial oil reserves (i.e., 945 Bbbl), with Venezuela’s Petróleos de Venezuela S.A. (PDVSA) accounting for a large proportion. Producing these NOC resources includes a wide range of costs. NOCs at the low end of the

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