BP Energy Outlook 2018 - the 'evolving transition' scenario
2/20/2018 8:53:15 AM
BP Energy Outlook - 2018 Edition
"We are seeing growing competition between different energy sources, driven by abundant energy supplies, and continued improvements in energy efficiency. As the world learns to do more with less, demand for energy will be met by the most diverse fuels mix we have ever seen." Spencer Dale, BP group chief economist
Speed of the energy transition is uncertain and the Outlook covers a range of scenarios. Its 'evolving transition' scenario, which assumes government policies, technologies and societal preferences evolve in a manner and speed similar to the recent past, expects:
- Fast growth in developing economies drives up global energy demand a third higher.
- The global energy mix is the most diverse the world has ever seen by 2040, with oil, gas, coal and non-fossil fuels each contributing around 25%.
- Renewables are by far the fastest-growing fuel source, increasing five-fold and providing around 14% of primary energy.
- Demand for oil grows over much of Outlook period before plateauing in the later years.
- Natural gas demand grows strongly and overtakes coal as the second largest source of energy.
- Oil and gas together account for over half of the world’s energy
- Global coal consumption flatlines with Chinese coal consumption seeming increasingly likely to have plateaued.
- The number of electric cars grows to around 15% of the car parc, but because of the much higher intensity with which they are used, account for 30% of passenger vehicle kilometres.
- Carbon emissions continue to rise, signalling the need for a comprehensive set of actions to achieve a decisive break from the past.
Source: BP Energy Outlook
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