Rising oil, gas and LNG demand draws global traders to India
- India’s growing refineries are locking in long-term deals
- Traders see growth across crude, fuels and LNG
- Most new refining capacity will be absorbed domestically, traders say
A rare combination of rising fuel demand and expanding refining capacity is drawing global commodity traders to India, with firms such as Trafigura seeking long-term partnerships with state oil companies.
As consumption growth slows in most major economies, trading firm executives told the India Energy Week conference that they see opportunities across crude, refined fuels and liquefied natural gas (LNG).
"We see massive opportunities in India," said Sachin Gupta, chief executive of Trafigura India, pointing to strong demand for diesel, gasoline and liquefied petroleum gas and adding that India would be buying "a lot" of liquefied natural gas.
Gupta expects Indian oil demand to reach closer to 9 MMbpd by 2050, from about 5 MMbpd currently.
On Friday, Trafigura said it signed a "landmark crude supply agreement" with Bharat Petroleum Corp. to supply Iraqi Basrah and Omani crude to the Indian state refiner. BPCL also signed a term agreement with TotalEnergies for the procurement of UAE crude.
Growing demand. Indian Oil Corp. (IOC), the country's largest refiner, last year signed a five-year import deal with Trafigura to buy 2.5 MM tonnes (t) of LNG in a deal valued at $1.3 B–$1.4 B.
IOC's head of marketing, S.P. Srivastava told reporters at the conference that the company expects annual diesel demand to grow by 2%–3% and gasoline demand to rise by 5%–6% by 2030.
It signed a preliminary agreement with Paris-based Engie at India Energy Week for LNG and other natural gas trading opportunities in the Asia-Pacific region, IOC Chairman A.S. Sahney said.
Top gas importer Petronet LNG forecasts LNG imports will rise to 28 MMt–29 MMt in 2026, from about 25.5 MMt last year.
Trading giant Vitol expects most of India's refinery output to be absorbed domestically.
"There is 500,000 (bpd) of refining capacity coming online," said Kieran Gallagher, Vitol's Asia head. "Outside...summer seasonality and exports, largely the products derived from that capacity are going to be consumed within the country itself."
Opportunities for traders also extend to petrochemicals, where supply remains structurally short despite government estimates that production will rise by 29.62 MMt to 46 MMt by 2030.
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