PetroChina forecasts Chinese oil consumption will drop 4.9% this year
China's oil consumption is expected to drop in 2026 amid a pivot to new energy and high oil prices due to the Iran war, according to a report published by PetroChina's research unit.
China, the world's second-largest oil consumer, is forecast to consume 753 million tons of oil in 2026, a 4.9% drop from 2025 when consumption rose by 3.6%, according to a report by PetroChina Planning and Engineering Institute.
Here are some other key figures from the report:
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China's crude production is forecast at 217 million tons in 2026, up 0.5% year on year.
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Oil demand is plateauing and projected to fall to around 700 million tons by 2030.
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Oil refining capacity is set to reach 963 million tons per annum in 2026, an increase of 15 million tons.
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Refined oil consumption is forecast at 324 million tons in 2026, down 6.4% from 346 million tons in 2025, pointing to an accelerating contraction compared with a 3.5% drop last year.
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Jet fuel is an exception, with consumption expected to grow 0.2% in 2026.
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Gas consumption is forecast to grow 1.3%–2.5% year on year in 2026, reaching 440–445 billion cubic metres, up from 434.3 bcm in 2025.
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Gas demand is expected to rise further to 530–550 bcm by 2030.
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New ethylene capacity additions are forecast at 6.72 million tons per annum in 2026, with 4.15 mtpa from naphtha crackers.
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Demand for key new materials such as polyolefin elastomers (POE) is forecast to grow 21.4% in 2026, while carbon fibre demand is expected to surge 48.7%.
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Domestic self sufficiency in POE and carbon fibre continued to improve in 2025, with domestic production as a percentage of total POE consumption up 11.9 percentage points and carbon fibre up 0.7 percentage points. The data did not show the total percent of consumption produced domestically.
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